The December unemployment rate in the United States was the worst since the Great recession.

Does history repeat? Some economists have accused President Obama is that he made the same mistakes that have made the policy in the United States during the Great Depression began with the collapse of Wall Street in 1929. The number of unemployed increased by 661 000. These data were not included in the main indicator of unemployment, because too many Americans simply dropped out of the system. Broader U6 unemployment rate was 17.3%, and only that matters. On Wall Street revival. And the bulls are hoping that the weak employment data will delay the time of tightening of monetary policy: a ray of light in the darkness, or further evidence of immaturity of the market.

Foreclosure home mortgage usually occurs approximately one year after the loss of work and disposal of all accumulated savings. The local sheriff evicted the deadbeat of the house, of course, with sympathy - That's what police in 1932, mostly Irish Catholics, who donate 1% of their salary to a charitable kitchen. According to Realtytrac, in February, the number of non-payments and transfers of property to the bank of more than 300 000 per month. One million American families lost their homes in the fourth quarter. Projected Moody's Economy.com, this year is 2.4 million homes will lose their owners. All this is terribly like "Grapes of Wrath" Steynbeka. Judges are looking for ways to block the eviction. A magistrate in the state of Minnesota dismissed the case, calling the creditor "gross, disgusting, vile and disgusting" human being. We are not far from being able to declare a de facto moratorium in some areas. This is what happened in the years 1932-34. When half of U.S. states have declared a moratorium or "Farm holidays". This flexibility has become a vaccine for the U.S. economy against the "Red Unions and fascists Father Coughlin. Alienation of houses continues, despite the furious efforts of the Obama administration to slow down this process.

Such a policy is absolutely justified, taking into account the extent of social crisis. However, it also masks the continuing decay of the housing market, allows creditors to hide their losses and contributes to the further growth of the surplus of unsold property. Must be extremely naive to think that the worst for the U.S. housing market are behind us (my apologies traditional Goldman Sachs). Another mortgage only to detonate a bomb in this year or next year, when he grew up floating interest rate on mortgage contracts totaling $ 134 billion (£ 83 billion). Case-Shiller index shows that housing prices in the U.S. grow for five months, but in October, half of urban dynamics began to fade even before the growth of mortgage rates by 40 bps According to Charles Keyes (author index), prices could fall another 15%. "When issued in 2008-2009. Credits will be bad, we find ourselves in the same place and were - in a nightmare."


David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff noted with surprise how little support had zero interest rates and incredible scale measures of financial incentives. In the third quarter of 2009 growth rate of the U.S. economy amounted to 2.2% (completely through incentives for the Obama administration). This compared to an average of 7.3% in the first quarter after every recession since the Second World War. The hawks at the Fed are playing with fire when raising the question of exit strategies, and not the first time. This theme was raised in June 2008. And we know perfectly well what happened after three months. For your information, capacity utilization was 67.2% and the rate of "auto purchase intentions" has reached a record low.


The money multiplier Fed in mid-December has fallen to historic lows 0,809. The volume of commercial paper from October-the month decreased by $ 280 billion (£ 175 billion). The reduction of bank lending in June, the month has been horrendous. On November 25 the volume of bank lending fell from $ 10.844 trillion. to $ 9.013 trillion. Annual rate of decline MZM money supply is 3%. While the decline in the broader indicator of money supply M3 is greater than 5%. Professor Tim Condon of International Monetary Research said that the Fed's actions will lead to an increase of deflation this year and possibly a recession with a double bottom. Situation is even worse in Europe. However, all these facts do not stop the army of commentators, which tries to bring the Fed's tightening of monetary policy. They accuse Ben Bernanke to repeat the mistakes of 2004, when the Fed waited too long. Sometimes on this just want to scream. In 2004 there was a collapse in the housing market, the unemployment rate was 5.5%, the banking system was in good health, and the multiplier Fed was at 1.73.


It is not clear how someone could see the looming inflation extinguished in terms of pure PCE, which in November was only 0.1%. Customers asked Mr. Rosenberg, why Wall Street is clearly not agree with his gloomy analysis. His answer was as follows: it is the same market that bought shares in October 1987, when prices were inflated by 25%, 10-year standardized basis earnings "Schiller - like today - and in 2007 bought them even more overpriced when the collapse of the housing market has long occurred, Bear Stearns funds had burst, and the crediting of August experienced a heart attack. Stock market has become a lagging indicator. Just throw his books.